Crypto predictions for 2024 thanks to VanEck have arrived. VanEck is a big fat rich asset manager that guides their customer’s money by investing in things like stocks, bonds, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
VanEck has offices in many countries, including Australia.
They have released a big long boring report about what they think will happen in cryptoland next year, so we distilled it into the most interesting nuggets for you, in plain language.
Here are the top ten claims of the report.
1. The Bitcoin price will go up if recession hits
VanEck predicts the U.S. economy will go into a downturn in the first half of the year. Bitcoin has only gone through one U.S. recession before, in early 2020, when it lost a lot of value but then bounced back after the government printed more money.
Gold also lost some value in early 2020, but then recovered. Both gold and Bitcoin are not controlled by the government. Gold’s recent rise shows that people want money that is not easy to cancel or manipulate.
The U.S. government has a lot of debt, so people may buy Bitcoin through a new product called a spot Bitcoin ETF, which makes it easier and cheaper to invest in Bitcoin for the average person.
This may keep the Bitcoin price high, and VanEck thinks it will not go below US$30k (AU$46k) in the first three months of 2024.
2. Bitcoin halving number four will have zero drama
The Bitcoin halving is coming in April 2024 (to understand what that is, click here).
After a short time of waiting and seeing what happens, the price of Bitcoin will go up above US$48k (AU$72.5k).
3. Bitcoin will jump up to an all-time-high in Q4
According to VanEck, Bitcoin will hurl itself into a new record at the end of 2024. Bitcoin will face a lot of uncertainty because many big elections around the world are about to hit. Almost half of the people in the world will vote for their leaders in 2024. This means that things could change a lot and make the market go bananas.
Also the SEC, who have been seen to be persecuting the digital asset industry unfairly by some people, will be dismantled or overhauled.
VanEck says, “We think the Bitcoin price will reach an all-time high on November 9th, exactly 3 years to the day from its last all-time high.”
If Bitcoin gets to US$100k (AU$152k) by the end of the year, VanEck thinks that Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, will be chosen as Time Magazine’s “Man of the Year.”
4. The flippening won’t happen
Many Ethereum enthusiasts think that one day, Ethereum (or more correctly, the cryptocurrency Ether) will overtake Bitcoin to become the most popular cryptocurrency. That day has been dubbed “the flippening”.
VanEck predicts that Ethereum will not beat Bitcoin in 2024. But, it will do better than every big tech company.
Even though Ether will do well in 2024, it will lose some customers to other platforms that can handle more transactions faster, like Solana.
Also Bitcoin’s price rise, according to VanEck, will push up alt coins prices as well.
5. Ethereum Will Get Faster and Cheaper
Ethereum will get faster and cheaper after a big update called EIP-4844 (proto-danksharding). This will also speed up other chains that use Ethereum, like Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism.
Within a year of the update, one of these chains will have more money and activity than Ethereum for the first time. This is because lower fees will make it easier to buy and sell on these chains, and more people will trade to make profits.
6. NFTs are back
VanEck sees NFTs being toasty hot again. Every month, more money will be spent on NFTs as more people get into crypto.
7. Binance loses the crypto iron throne
Binance will not be the #1 place to buy and sell crypto anymore after it pays US$4B (AU$6.1B) to the US government in fines.
With Binance in trouble with the U.S. law, Coinbase’s international market will grow.
8. Stablecoins have entered the chat
Stablecoins will be worth more than ever. New rules for stablecoins start in Europe in 2024, so stablecoins that pay interest will grow.
The stablecoin USDC (the second most popular stablecoin) will pass stablecoin Tether USDT (the most popular), as more big companies will choose USDC over USDT on newer networks.
Also, the U.S. government will go after Justin Sun for shady things happening with Tron.
9. DEXs will become way more popular
Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) let people buy and sell crypto without a middleman. They will get more of the market than ever as faster networks like Solana make trading on the network easier and better for users. Also, better wallets (that let you pay automatically) will make more people use the network and keep their own crypto.
10. Transferring money across borders gets easier with stablecoins
One of the more interesting crypto predictions is that people sending money across borders will start to change to stablecoins, as they make it easier and cheaper to pay people in other countries.
Some people already use Bitcoin and the Lightning Network (LN) to send money, and next year they will be able to “stake” Bitcoin (like a term deposit at a bank) and make money from it in 2024.
If you want to read the last five predictions on VanEck’s list, click here.