While everyone loves a good crypto price prediction, other developments in the crypto space are just as interesting. Here are the top ten crypto predictions for 2024, from Bitwise Invest, a company that provides crypto index funds and ETFs.
Cryptocurrency predictions: Price prediction first, of course!
“Bitcoin will trade above US$80,000, setting a new all-time high. There are two major catalysts that will help get us there: the anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 and the halving of new Bitcoin supply around the end of April.”
This prediction is at the bullish side of predictions for Bitcoin’s price. A spot Bitcoin ETF (in the U.S. anyway, where numerous companies await permission to offer them) would increase the demand and liquidity for Bitcoin, making it more accessible and attractive to mainstream investors. A halving is expected to create a scarcity effect, as there would be fewer bitcoins available for mining and trading, increasing their value.
However, is regulatory approval in the U.S. for a spot Bitcoin ETF likely? That’s the question. While many enthusiasts think it will be approved soon by regulators, it is not a sure thing.
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved, and collectively they will be the most successful ETF launch of all time. Within five years, we estimate spot Bitcoin ETFs could capture 1 percent of the US$7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or US$72 billion in AUM.”
This is possible, however, everyone needs to calm the farm when it comes to assuming that spot Bitcoin ETFs are a sure thing. They aren’t a sure thing at all, and the SEC has never approved any of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs applied for in the past.
This is a very optimistic and bullish outlook on the future of spot bitcoin ETFs. However the reason why many pundits think this will push up Bitcoin prices is that to operate these kind of ETFs, the investment houses need to actually buy and hold Bitcoin.
Regulatory approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is still pending in many countries, such as the U.S., Canada, Japan, and here in Australia. And spot Bitcoin ETFs may face competition from other cryptocurrencies or digital assets that offer similar or better returns or features.
And keep in mind, even if they do get approved, to be successful, customers will have to buy into them. Nothing is a sure thing here. So the jury is still out on this one.
“Coinbase’s revenue will double, beating Wall Street expectations by at least 10x. Historically, Coinbase’s trading volumes surge in bull markets, and we expect the same to happen again. Plus, they’ve launched a wide range of new products that are showing traction.”
Historically, Coinbase’s trading volumes surge in bull markets, and they’ve launched a wide range of new products. However this prediction is again, very optimistic. First of all, this prediction presumes an impending bull market. This might not be the case, even though most crypto prices have risen in the past two months. And, in the past two years, Coinbase earnings have taken a bit of a wild ride, so nothing is certain.
It is probably unlikely that Coinbase will double its revenue in the near future, let alone beat Wall Street expectations by at least 10x. However, this does not mean that Coinbase is irrelevant. Coinbase is still one of the largest crypto platforms in the word and is expanding into new areas all the time.
“More money will settle using stablecoins than using Visa. Stablecoins are one of crypto’s “killer apps,” growing from effectively zero to a $137 billion market in the past four years, and we think 2024 will be another major year of growth.”
Again this is very optimistic. Visa supports transaction settlement with USDC stablecoin, which is the first company to test the new capability with its own Visa-branded cards.
However, this does not mean that USDC will replace Visa as the dominant payment network in the future. The vast majority of people are still unaware of what stablecoins are, so adoption is likely to be slow in 2024. However stablecoins are likely to become more present. They offer a fast, cheap, secure, and transparent way of transferring value across borders, and it is this most likely to encourage adoption.
“JPMorgan will tokenise a fund and launch it on-chain as Wall Street gears up to tokenise real-world assets. Launching a tokenised fund would allow them to take advantage of the efficiencies on-chain assets can offer while entering a market whose growth is exploding.”
This prediction is probably possible and even reasonable. JPMorgan has already moved to commercialise blockchain with its Tokenised Collateral Network (TCN). And, JPMorgan is not the only big American bank that is interested in tokenising real-world assets.
For example, Goldman Sachs has launched a digital asset trading platform called Marcus Invest, which allows users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. Bank of America has partnered with Paxos to offer custody services for digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Stellar Lumens. Wells Fargo has partnered with Ripple Labs to explore the use of blockchain technology for cross-border payments.
Yep, this one could be a go.
“Ethereum revenue will more than double to US$5 billion as users flock to crypto applications. In 2023, users will pay ~US$2.3 billion in fees to use Ethereum. We think that will at least double in 2024, making Ethereum one of the fastest-growing large-scale tech platforms in the world.”
Another optimistic prediction. It’s not a given that Ethereum’s revenue will grow in 2024. However the adoption of smart contracts and decentralised apps (dApps) in many areas of life could see this prediction get over the line.
Ethereum is still the most popular blockchain for dApp developers, but it has some drawbacks. It charges high fees and takes a long time to process transactions, which limits its adoption. Many other blockchains have emerged as alternatives to Ethereum, promising better features and performance.
These days, Ethereum has many competitors including Solana, Avalanche, and Cardano, among others.
“Taylor Swift will launch NFTs to connect with fans. One possibility? Spotify — where Swift was the most-streamed artist in 2023 with more than 26 billion streams — is experimenting with token-gated playlists that require listeners to own a particular NFT in order to listen.”
This one is plausible. Swift has a reputation for interacting with fans in new and interesting ways. She’s also had battles around owning and monetising her music. NFTs might be a way to connect with her fans on a deeper level.
Interestingly, a nugget of info to consider is that Spotify is talking about a new service called “token-enabled playlists”. This will allow holders of NFTs to connect their wallets and then listen to curated music.
Yep, this one could be a go.
“AI assistants will start using crypto to pay for things online, affirming crypto as “the native currency of the internet.” We believe AI assistants will prefer digitally native money, like bitcoin or stablecoins. And we think that starts happening in 2024.”
While this opinion is optimistic, it is also realistic. Crypto is known as the native currency of the internet. The main struggle it will face is competition from traditional payment methods such as credit cards, PayPal, or Google / Apple Pay.
And yet… Crypto is becoming more accessible and user-friendly. AI assistants may be able to learn from platforms and tools how to use crypto effectively and efficiently.
Yep. This could be a go.
“More than $100 million will be staked in prediction markets, which will emerge as a new “killer app” for crypto. We think decentralised prediction markets will become a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering.”
First of all… what are prediction markets? They are markets, using blockchain tech, where people can bet on the outcome of future events, such as political elections, sports matches, natural disasters, or technological innovations.
Users can buy and sell contracts that represent their bets.
Prediction markets use a wild range of currencies, such as money, shares, crypto or other tokens, to facilitate the transactions. Because they are conducted on the blockchain, they are deemed as fairer than other traditional alternatives.
Will prediction markets become a primary venue for both event-based and more traditional sports-related wagering? Its possible. Traditional online gambling grew at mind-boggling speeds in 2023, so it make sense that blockchain-based offerings could steal a big piece of the pie.
“A major upgrade to Ethereum will drive the avg transaction cost below $0.01. EIP-4844 could result in a 90 percent or more reduction in the cost to use Ethereum. We think this upgrade will pave the way for the first truly mainstream applications in crypto.”
This could be possible. EIP-4844 is a new way to make Ethereum faster and cheaper. EIP-4844 lets people send big pieces of data (called blobs) on Ethereum. These blobs are like pictures or videos that take up a lot of space, but they don’t cost much to send. EIP-4844 is also called proto-danksharding, which means it is a step towards making Ethereum more like sharding.
Sharding is when Ethereum splits into smaller parts (called shards) that can work together to process more transactions. Sharding will make Ethereum even faster and cheaper in the future.
EIP-4844 may be ready on Ethereum soon, it was penned in for the last quarter of 2023, but there’s no sign of it yet. So this prediction will be good to go if EIP-4844 does indeed go ahead.
Crypto predictions: Bonus Prediction
“1 in 4 financial advisors will allocate to crypto in client accounts by the end of 2024. We anticipate that once bitcoin becomes easily accessible, more and more advisors will allocate to crypto in clients’ accounts.”
This is fairly sound, especially if spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved in the U.S.
On a positive note, what’s great about this list is that it isn’t all about the latest crypto price prediction for whatever token is trendy! There are movements in the digital asset space that are incredibly interesting. So out with the occasional cryptocurrency price prediction, and in with the crypto forecast that includes a variety of actors in the space.
Remember, these are just crypto prediction punts, not facts. Cryptocurrency news predictions are a dime a dozen, so don’t throw any money into any of this that you can’t afford to lose. Remember to temper crypto news predictions with doing your own research.