It’s crypto forecast time! Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee gives us his predictions for cryptocurrencies in 2024.
Crypto forecast: Bitcoin
Here are the short-term, mid-term, and long-term predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2024:
Short-term (In the next 1-3 months)
In the short term, the narrative revolves around the approval of spot BTC ETFs. The recent market conditions have already to some extent priced in the approval of spot BTC ETFs.
With the formal approval of BTC ETFs, the price of BTC may experience a short-term surge.
While there might be a possibility of short-term corrections due to the market potentially already digesting the positive news, the approval of spot BTC ETFs is considered a long-term positive. It is recommended for users to hold BTC spot for the long term.
Short-term prediction: Fluctuation within the range of US$32,000-$US50,000 (AU$48,320-AU$73,500) points.
Medium-term (In the next 4-9 months)
In the mid-term, the positive narrative is the BTC halving event. The BTC halving significantly impacts the supply-demand relationship, with the supply of BTC decreasing by half.
Concurrently, with the approval of spot BTC ETFs, the demand for BTC is expected to increase substantially.
The BTC halving event in April 2024 might occur earlier than previous halving events, potentially providing stronger support for an upward BTC price movement.
Mid-term prediction for 2024: Fluctuation within the range of US$38,000-US$75,000 (AU$56,620 – AU$111,750) points.
Long-term
For the entire year of 2024, attention needs to be given to whether the U.S. policy will shift and when it might occur. With the worsening expectations of the U.S. economy, market analysis suggests a high probability of the US Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in 2024, leading to a decline in the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds — a favourable condition for overall risk assets.
The market value of stablecoins in the cryptocurrency space has been increasing for over a month. It is worth noting that changes in stablecoin market value generally lag behind market fluctuations.
If the trend of stablecoin market value continues to grow, it indicates a temporary absence of a market shift.
Year-end prediction for 2024: Fluctuation within the range of US$40,000-$US120,000 (AU$59,600-AU$178,800) points.
Crypto forecast: Ether
Ether (ETH) is currently showing relative weakness compared to BTC. The major positive factors in Q1 2024 come from the Cancun upgrade. Additionally, it is influenced by the approval results of the BTC ETF and the timing of the Fed interest rate cut.
If everything progresses smoothly, there is a chance for ETH to break through US$2500 (AU$3725), aiming for US$2800 (AU$4172), with support levels at US$2100 (AU$3130) and US$1800 (AU$2682).
In the mid-year period, there is a high probability of BTC ETF approval and the Fed interest rate cut landing, as per the current swap data indicating the Fed interest rate cut in the period from March to May 2024.
Based on this, the results of the ETF approval for ETH will start to ferment, and there is a possibility of it exhibiting a trend stronger than BTC.
In an optimistic scenario, ETH might test the range of US$3000-US$3500 (AU$5075-AU$4280) on the upside. Depending on the market’s fund activity, it is expected to oscillate mostly in the range of US$1800-US$3000 (AU$2682-AU$3000).
With multiple positive factors resonating in 2024, and cryptocurrency negative sentiment being well-digested, following historical cycles, BTC may further rise to its peak within six months to one and a half years after the halving.
ETH is expected to break out accordingly. With the entry of top mainstream financial institutions, it can be anticipated that the combined efforts of the market will drive ETH to reach historic highs in 2024, breaking US$4900 (AU$7301) and further pushing up the bottom price of the new ETH cycle to the range of US$2500-US$3000 (AU$3725-AU$4470).
Crypto forecast: XRP
XRP is currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation. In 2023, XRP rebounded from a low of US$0.28 (AU$0.42) to a high of US$0.94 (AU$1.40).
This surge was primarily attributed to a U.S. federal judge ruling that Ripple, the company behind XRP, selling XRP tokens through exchanges and algorithmic programs did not constitute an investment contract (not in violation of securities laws).
Subsequently, the SEC’s lawsuit against the CEO of Ripple was unsuccessful. In the current crypto market catalysed by expectations of BTC ETF, BTC halving, and a new round of interest rate cuts, XRP has shown relative weakness in its trend.
It is anticipated that in 2024, it will mainly follow the trend of BTC. As its applications in the financial sector expand, and if it is included in ETF applications by leading financial institutions, there is a possibility that XRP could truly surpass US$1 (AU$1.49) in 2024, reaching the range of US$1-US$1.5 (AU$1.49-AU$2.24).
Crypto forecast: ADA
In the current market, dominated by BTC in a small bull run, ADA has rebounded nearly threefold from the bottom, experiencing a 74 percent increase in the past month and directly breaking through the one-year price average.
And in previous bull markets, ADA has repeatedly shown independent trends with monthly gains ranging from 100% to 300%.
In 2024, as the trend of mainstream financial adoption and improvement in the macroeconomic funding environment strengthens, it is anticipated that ADA will continue to experience significant independent gains, breaking through to the range of US$1.2 – US$18 ((AUD$1.79 – AUD$26.82).
The total value locked (TVL) in its ecosystem reached a historic high of US$440 million (AU$655.6 million) in December, and there is a possibility of accelerated development of ecosystem projects in 2024, with TVL surpassing US$2 billion (AU$2.98 billion).
Crypto forecast: Solana
Regarding the 2024 predictions for Solana, several key aspects can be considered:
Macro-Economic Perspective: In the latest and final interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve for 2023, the overall stance was dovish. It is expected that in 2024, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 75-125 basis points.
The liquidity released from this could be a significant positive factor for the cryptocurrency industry. With ample funds, token prices in the cryptocurrency industry may experience a general increase. Solana, as a leading public blockchain in the industry, is likely to attract considerable attention from a wide range of investors.
Solana’s DeFi Ecosystem: Multiple DeFi protocols within the Solana ecosystem are beginning to conduct airdrops for the community. As Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) gradually increases, the activity of various protocols is also showing initial signs of growth.
In 2024, more DeFi protocols are expected to issue tokens on Solana, further encouraging a greater influx of users into the Solana ecosystem.
Solana’s New Narrative: DePin is the new narrative in the Solana ecosystem. DePin, short for Decentralised Physical Infrastructure Networks, is a form of decentralised network that combines hardware. It involves integrating hardware into decentralised networks to provide physical services and introduces tokens for incentives.
DePin projects within the Solana ecosystem are performing well and have a high degree of alignment with the ecosystem. There is a significant possibility that these DePin projects will play a crucial role in shaping the new narrative for Solana in the next bull market.
The most promising tokens in 2024
Bitcoin is the most promising asset for the year 2024, and the reasons are as follows:
Bitcoin, as one of the most established and widely recognised cryptocurrencies with robust consensus, stands out as one of the most successful applications of blockchain technology. It is gradually gaining acceptance in mainstream society.
In 2024, numerous large institutions are likely to introduce Bitcoin ETFs, injecting a massive amount of liquidity into Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency industry.
In 2024, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving event. Following patterns observed in past halving events, Bitcoin’s price is expected to experience a significant surge.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently experiencing rapid development. With a variety of applications being built on the Bitcoin platform, the increasing demand from participants within the ecosystem will likely drive up the price of Bitcoin.
The most promising Play-to-Earn tokens for 2024
BIGTIME is currently one of the best MMORPGs, and the game is taking shape with rich design and strong entertainment value. The development focus is currently on the implementation of certain functional NFTs, making it worth paying attention to. The game launched in October and has garnered widespread attention, with various strategies being shared on different live streaming platforms.
Backed by a top-tier team and substantial funding, BIGTIME secured nearly $90 million in primary market financing. However, it is important to note that after two rounds of speculative trading, the price of BIGTIME has risen significantly. Investors should exercise caution and choose the right timing for their investment.
The most promising altcoins for 2024
Tokens within the Solana ecosystem:
Contrary to concerns following FTX’s troubles, Solana did not spiral into a decline. Instead, it stabilised and gradually climbed from its low point of US$7.85 (AU$11.69) with the rebound of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year.
The Total Value Locked (TVL) in the Solana ecosystem doubled in a single month, surpassing US$900 million (AU$1.34 billion). However, during the peak in November 2021, the Solana ecosystem’s TVL approached nearly $10 billion (AU$14.9 billion), indicating substantial room for Solana’s recovery.
Generous airdrops from projects like JUP, PYTH, and JTO have heightened market expectations for Solana ecosystem project airdrops, leading to a general rise in the ecosystem’s token values.
Tokens such as SOL, RAY, ORCA, PYTH, BONK, holding significant positions in Solana’s decentralised exchanges (DEX), oracle, and meme sectors respectively, are all worth keeping an eye on.
Remember though the crypto market is volatile and nothing is guaranteed!
