Is Bitcoin scarcity going to drive up the price? It just might do that, according to well-known CNBC Fast Money Trader Brian Kelly. In fact, he says, it may end up more scarce than gold. It’s all eyes on the Bitcoin price.
As the Bitcoin halving approaches in April of 2024, a lot of people are watching the Bitcoin price. This is because prices in Bitcoin’s short life (it was created in 2009) usually rise after this event, which happens every four years.
After the Bitcoin halving, there will be less new Bitcoin being mined than there was before. This means that the amount of new Bitcoin being released will slow down. There will be no new Bitcoin once 21 million Bitcoins have been mined.
As Bitcoin gets more scarce, Kelly suggests that the price could go up.
“What we’ve seen historically is that the 12 to 16 months after the Bitcoin halving has been the best performance of Bitcoin, so that’s what everybody’s thinking about. This time might be different because the price of Bitcoin is higher.”
Kelly continued, “We now only have around 900 Bitcoin a day coming out, so that gets cut in half. It’s not a lot of Bitcoin, but what it does do is it makes Bitcoin more scarce than gold. So for the first time in history, you have an asset that is more scarce than gold, way more scarce. Let’s call it a stock-to-flow ratio… Now there’ll be less Bitcoin than gold mined on a relative basis.”
As for the question of whether Bitcoin will be more scarce than gold, Liam Bussell of Cloudtech told The Chainsaw this is largely impossible to answer.
“There will only ever be 21,000,000 BTC. vs 244,000 metric tonnes of gold plus an unknown amount under the surface.
“These predictions come out pretty frequently and they are good to get your name out there but there is no downside to getting it wrong… Overall predictions are unreliable as is Mr. Kelly. How do you compare a BTC to gold? How much gold? It’s apples and oranges.”
In regards to predictions, Bussell believes the Bitcoin price will go up 5-10% a month in the short-term future anyway. “That means BTC may be $80-90k by the end of the year. However, it’s worth noting that it has gone up quicker.”
Supercycle dangers
Gracy Chen, Managing Director at Bitget says there is a “but” to all this excitement about a Bitcoin supercycle. Chen says there are looming negative factors such as the repayment of 137,000 Bitcoin by Mt.Gox to creditors and the liquidation of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road case by the U.S. government. “These events could exert selling pressure. Additionally, global crypto regulatory rules still carry uncertainty, leading to the possibility of unforeseen events.”
Overall, though, Chen is optimistic. She told The Chainsaw that the Bitcoin halving enhances scarcity.
“Three halvings have occurred, each resulting in significantly higher prices. The upcoming fourth halving in April 2024, can increase scarcity of Bitcoin and potentially strengthen the Bitcoin price, but the effect is less influential than earlier three halvings since the block reward is diminishing.”
And, says Chen, there are some potentially positive movements happening.
“The first thing is Bitcoin spot ETF approval, the second is that we are near the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle, and then the recent regulatory settlements for FTX and Binance exchanges, and expectations of an IPO for USDC stablecoin issuer Circle.
“These factors will increase market activity and bring new buying power, especially from the institutional investor and high-net-worth individuals. Considering these catalysts, we could very likely witness a Bitcoin Super Cycle in 2024.”
Price prediction
Kelly thinks there will be a one-to-two year bull period. He also thinks that the Bitcoin price increase (if there is one) will also drag other coins along with it.
“So generally what we’ve seen in bull markets is about a month after Bitcoin moves, altcoins start to go up. We saw Ethereum breakout last night and then Solana. Then it starts to go down the list. So that’s what I would anticipate.”
When asked if Kelly would rather Bitcoin or Gold as an investment, he answered Bitcoin. “I mean, you gotta bet on the fastest horse.”
Will the price of Bitcoin go up? As ever in the world of cryptocurrencies, nothing is a given, and anything could happen. Enthusiasts are looking forward to something that might not eventuate. Let’s keep watching.
