The Easter long weekend is upon us, and it’s a little known fact that the prices of major crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have a tendency to behave strangely during this particular holiday.
Due to the cryptocurrency market being in its nascent stages, there’s little in the way of concrete evidence to point to, however it’s worth noting that an interesting trading phenomenon seems to be increasingly commonplace.
During the period of the Easter holiday the price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and some of the other top cryptocurrencies tend to drop in price.
Every year since 2017, the price of Bitcoin has dropped during the Easter holiday period. In 2020, the price of Bitcoin dipped nearly 3% before Easter and only recovered in the week following the holiday. Similar drops in the price of Bitcoin subsequently occurred in 2021 and 2022.
Easter crypto: Prepare yourselves for ‘the calendar effect’
The trading of cryptocurrencies around major holidays is what’s broadly known as the “calendar effect” and typically happens (as you’d expect) around Easter, Christmas, and Chinese New Year. It is also especially prominent around tax season when investors offload their poorer performing assets for tax loss harvesting.
This effect has been occurring in the more traditional market for a good span of time. In those markets, prices of assets tend to fall leading up to the Christmas period in what’s known as the ‘holiday effect’.
Stock prices will rebound in the days leading up to Christmas. Traders call this effect the ‘Santa Claus rally.’ Usually, stock prices then rise right up until the first few days of January.
This year, you’ll need to watch out for the the calendar effect heading into the Easter long weekend, as crypto prices may see temporary price dips. You also need to remember that what happens in previous years might not happen in 2023, because the crypto markets are notoriously volatile and extremely hard to predict.
To better understand what happens around Easter time, we’ve complied a breakdown of Bitcoin’s price action around the Easter period since its inception in 2009.
The price of Bitcoin at Easter since inception
|Year||Date of Easter||Price 1 week before (US$)||Price at Easter (US$)||Price 1 week after (US$)|
Looking solely at the price at Bitcoin (BTC) over the Easter period there’s not really any strong evidence of a price increase, however it’s a well-known phenomenon that holiday periods experience sharp spikes in trading activity. This is specific to crypto markets, because they’re the only ones open while other traditional markets shut down for the holidays.
Easter crypto: Trading
According to data procured by investment analysts at MacroHive, there’s a significant gain in the amount of trading activity that occurs of the Easter period.
Like all things in the market, the direct cause of this increase can’t be explained with 100% accuracy. Still, leading American economist Richard Thaler attempts to explain this with his ‘bored-market hypothesis’ which argues that the “boredom” associated with holiday periods leads to heightened trading activity.
And so with Easter weekend closing in on us, it seems likely that more traders will be trying their hand at trading the larger cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum while traditional markets shut their doors for the duration of the holiday.