Changpeng Zhao, otherwise known as CZ, has declared that he is bullish on Bitcoin. As the overlord of crypto exchange Binance, it is probably in his best interest to spout such things. However, in light of the coming Bitcoin halving, let’s take a look at what he is saying.
On the Binance feed, CZ said that Binance has added the Bitcoin halving countdown to its homepage.
I can’t predict the future. This is my experience based on the past 3 halvings.
1. The few months leading up to the bitcoin halving (from now), there will be more and more chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope, etc.
2. The day after the halving, the bitcoin price won’t double overnight. And people will be asking why it didn’t.
3. The year after the halving, bitcoin price hits multiple ATH (all time highs). And people ask why. People have short memories.
Not saying there is proven causation. And history does NOT predict the future.
Previous Bitcoin halvings have correlated with intense boom and bust cycles that have ended with prices higher than before the halving. But let’s not get too excited. Past performance is not always indicative of future results.
Quick recap: What is a Bitcoin halving?
A Bitcoin halving event is a recurring event that takes place approximately every four years. Bitcoin miners get paid in Bitcoin for keeping the Bitcoin network in good shape. Their Bitcoin payment for doing this gets reduced by 50% after the halving. This means there is less incentive to mine Bitcoins, and it theoretically makes Bitcoin more scarce.
In 2023 individuals who validate transactions on the network are granted 6.25 bitcoins (BTC) for each block they successfully mine.
The next halving is anticipated to take place in April or May 2024, when the block reward will decrease to 3.125. As time passes, the effect of each halving will lessen as the block reward approaches zero.
The last halving was in May 2020, when the block reward dropped from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC.
Dr Rand Low is an Associate Professor of Quantitative Finance at Bond University on the Gold Coast. He told The Chainsaw that prices rise and fall according to two factors: supply versus demand, and market sentiment.
“In the past, the value of cryptocurrencies has been driven more by market sentiment (especially the really unknown coins) rather than supply and demand,” he said.
“If we focus on the supply and demand argument, yes BTC will rise 3-6 months after the halving, because supply of new Bitcoins will drop. We will also see a consolidation in the number of Bitcoin miners as the rewards received after the halving will go down to 3.125 BTC.”
Dr Low says that when it comes to market sentiment, it really depends on what other issues transpire in financial markets. “Right now the biggest issues are rising cost of living due to increased interest rates, etcetera. So most people do not have the disposable income to invest in cryptocurrencies.”
Dr Low believes the real demand for Bitcoin is often from individuals who are willing to take it as a medium of exchange, and who are operating in so-called dark markets: “This is where the demand for cryptocurrencies currently sits, with individuals who want to trade in products and services largely in an anonymous manner, as the products and services being traded may be illegal.”
That said, he thinks that blockchain technology can be applied to a wide variety of uses. This is despite there being no single pervading use of blockchain that has been adopted en masse by members of the public, aside from being a medium of exchange.
“Blockchain technology is a very interesting and powerful tool. We need to be patient to see where the technology will take us going forward in the future.”
So will the Bitcoin price rise after the halving? Also, how long is a piece of string?
We will keep watching.